Trump and Biden Likely Won’t Shake Hands at Debate, Prediction Market Says

This week in prediction markets:

The handshake has long been a key component of U.S. presidential debates. It’s a gesture of civility and mutual respect, despite opposing ideas, and has been the “first scene” (and last) of presidential debates for the last four decades (though it was absent from the first televised one in 1960).

But Polymarket bettors doubt there will be one during the first 2024 presidential debate, scheduled for June 27.

“This market will resolve to ‘Yes’ if Donald Trump and Joe Biden shake hands at any point immediately before, during, or immediately after the first in-person presidential debate in the 2024 election cycle,” the market contract reads, with “yes” shares currently trading at 32 cents.

For the uninitiated, in prediction markets, individuals who predict the correct outcome are rewarded with $1 per share, whereas those who guess incorrectly earn nothing. The price of a share indicates the perceived probability of an event; for example, a share priced at 32 cents implies a 32% likelihood of that event occurring.

The break in handshakes started during the 2016 election cycle, when debates began to get particularly acrimonious compared to the past.

Biden and Trump didn’t shake hands during the 2020 debate cycle, not because of hostility and acrimony between the candidates – there was plenty of that – but rather Covid protocols.

Former President Trump’s claims that the 2020 election was stolen will likely come up during the debate, as well as his mounting legal troubles. Trump will likely respond with Hunter Biden’s legal woes as well as make comments about President Biden’s mental agility.

Does this sound like the sort of environment where two people will shake hands before or after?

Meanwhile, the rumor mill is playing a guessing game as to whether the Biden campaign will accept cryptocurrency donations,